2025 Year-End Insights
The United States Retail and Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) industries present two distinct work forces united by the pressure of shifting consumer behaviors and digital transformation. In the Retail sector, employment remains high, but it is characterized by immense churn, particularly around seasonal hiring and layoffs, with trends showing that the retention of seasonal employees has become less pronounced in recent holiday seasons compared to earlier years (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Trends in retail trade holiday employment buildups and layoffs"). Front-line retail jobs, such as Cashiers and Retail Salespersons, continue to have low median annual wages, creating a fundamental instability in the workforce. Conversely, the CPG sector is focusing its job growth on specialized, white-collar roles in supply chain, data science, and e-commerce, with occupations like Data Science projected to grow much faster than the average for all occupations, emphasizing the industry's investment in optimization and digital marketing (BLS projections cited by CSCMP/LinkedIn reports).
From an economic perspective, both industries are healthy in terms of overall consumption, but the financial risk has shifted. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) on Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales indicates that consumer spending remains robust, though current consumer outlook suggests a tendency to cut back on discretionary spending due to price concerns (FRED via U.S. Census Bureau, "Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales"). The CPG industry's economic strength is now fundamentally tied to its ability to manage supply chain complexity and data analytics, with significant corporate investment going toward resilient systems rather than simply maximizing floor space. For retail, the primary challenge is the structural shift to e-commerce, which is projected to constrain retail trade employment and shift labor demand toward warehousing and logistics, necessitating that retailers focus on leveraging technology to increase labor productivity .
A major force reshaping the corporate landscape is the ongoing series of large-scale corporate workforce reductions at major e-commerce and technology companies, which have led to thousands of job cuts in corporate, cloud, and engineering divisions globally.1 These decisions, often the largest in the history of the companies involved, are driven by a combination of factors: correcting the over-hiring that occurred during the pandemic-era digital boom, tightening corporate budgets due to economic pressures, and an aggressive strategic shift toward automation and generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) (NerdWallet, "Tech Layoffs in 2025"; The Economic Times, "1.2 million Americans laid off in 2025 as job cuts hit highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic").2 The loss of these high-paid corporate positions floods the market with highly skilled professionals, increasing competition for roles in adjacent industries and creating significant anxiety among surviving corporate staff that their functions may soon be automated.
Worker sentiment shared across social media platforms over the last 45 days highlights the intense financial and emotional pressure on the front-line workforce. Retail workers frequently discuss operating in a "fragile financial and career ecosystem" marked by stagnant pay, unpredictable schedules, and strained workplace relationships. For hourly employees, the lack of scheduling equity, where hours constantly fluctuate and lack transparency, is a major driver of turnover and low morale, often cited as a key reason for leaving ahead of compensation alone. In the corporate CPG world, the sentiment centers on job insecurity due to major layoffs, often attributed to over-hiring during the pandemic and the acceleration of AI adoption for corporate functions, forcing professionals to constantly upgrade skills to avoid being caught in a restructuring (PwC Holiday Outlook Survey).
To explore new opportunities, employees are successfully translating their high-touch customer skills and operational know-how into more stable, salaried positions. The most successful strategy for front-line retail workers is the pivot into Customer Success, Operations Coordination, or Account Management roles in other industries, such as tech or corporate services. This transition requires employees to reframe their retail experience, such as managing high-volume Black Friday crowds or inventory, as proof of project management, problem-solving, and conflict resolution skills (The Spice & Tea Exchange, "Career after Retail"). For managers and CPG corporate staff, the key is formalizing their knowledge: CPG professionals with supply chain experience successfully transition into Logistics and Procurement across industries by obtaining certifications like the Certified Supply Chain Professional (CSCP). Retail managers often find success by leveraging their team leadership experience to move into Learning & Development or Vendor Management roles, where their expertise in operational efficiency and training new staff provides a clear path out of store-level operations.
Q4 2025 Insights
The current picture of the U.S. Retail industry workforce is one of relative stability in employment but with persistent issues regarding compensation, job security, and overall worker well-being, as reflected in both governmental data and recent online discussions.
The most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicates that retail trade employment has shown relatively little change month-over-month, suggesting a leveling off of job numbers in the sector. While the overall unemployment rate has remained largely stable, retail trade specifically has not seen significant employment gains recently, a trend that aligns with long-term projections of little or no change in total retail sales worker employment over the coming decade due to the continued rise of e-commerce. Despite this low overall job growth projection, hundreds of thousands of annual job openings are still anticipated, primarily due to the constant need to replace workers who exit the labor force or transfer to other occupations.
In terms of compensation, the latest BLS data for retail sales workers shows a median hourly wage in the mid-sixteen dollar range. For all employees in the retail trade sector, the average hourly earnings hover in the mid-twenty dollar range. These figures highlight a persistent challenge: while retail continues to be a massive private-sector employer, the wages for front line workers remain low, often failing to keep pace with the general cost of living. Furthermore, projections indicate a potential future decrease in the overall retail trade workforce over the next ten years.
Recent discussions on social media regarding the lives of retail workers show a strong and consistent sentiment of being overworked and underpaid, suggesting a challenging environment for many. Workers frequently describe an experience of "retail hell," characterized by demanding and aggressive customers, which has led to a feeling of decreased self-worth, bitterness, and cynicism. A major point of frustration is the poor work conditions, including unpredictable or severely cut hours, which makes financial stability difficult even for those who manage to secure a job. In the last 45 days, numerous posts emphasize that companies are "hiring," yet newly employed and even regular staff are often given very low hours, sometimes as few as four to twelve hours a week, indicating a lack of secure, full-time work and suggesting businesses are cautious about labor costs.
In this struggle for survival, two main trends are evident. First, many retail workers are navigating the high cost of living by adopting specific living arrangements, such as living with family or relying on roommate situations, rather than being able to afford independent living on a retail salary alone. Second, a significant portion of the workforce is actively exploring new jobs or industries. The feeling that retail experience is often dismissed by hiring managers in other sectors is a source of despair, with many sharing stories of applying for hundreds of jobs and facing ghosting or rejection, even from other retail stores. While a few find relief in moving to less customer-facing roles within retail, the overarching trend is one of desperation and a concerted effort to leave the industry for better pay, more stable hours, and a less emotionally taxing environment, indicating a general sense that the job is not one to do well in, but rather one to survive and ultimately escape.
August 2025
It all begins with an idea.
Overall, retail employees feel unfulfilled, unsatisfied, and have a deep sense of being underappreciated. On social media, front line retail workers frequently vent about being miserable, with a common theme being that they are underpaid and overworked. Many feel they are treated like high-powered robots expected to handle a massive workload without sufficient staffing or support. Labor studies find that career happiness and fulfillment among retail managers, in particular, rank as some of the lowest in the U.S. labor market. They feel that while their personalities may be suited to the work, they struggle to find meaning in their jobs and are highly dissatisfied with their compensation. Whether consumer retail, CPG, or wholesale retail, workers are being driven to the brink with little energy to find other jobs/gigs.
The retail sector is facing a period of contraction and instability. A recent report showed that retail job cuts have spiked nearly 250% from last year, with over half of U.S. industries cutting jobs. Tariffs are weighing on businesses that employee these workers, leading to downsizing of their labor force as a first measure to cut costs. This is also fueled by general economic uncertainty, inflation, and a shift in consumer spending. The layoffs are occurring as companies close stores, restructure, or, in more extreme cases, file for bankruptcy. This trend is particularly concerning as it comes in Q3, right before the holiday season. As a result, many retailers have chosen not to announce hiring plans for Q4 this year.