Q4 2025 Insights
The Q3 2025 Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) for Advertising and Marketing suggests large corporations are maintaining ad spend, reflecting a cautious but non-panicked economic outlook (supporting the GDPNow's moderate growth forecast). However, an analysis of Small Business Optimism Index (NFIB) data shows a concurrent pullback in local and small business ad spend. This indicates a bifurcation in the market, with large players consolidating ad budgets onto proven platforms while smaller firms are cutting back due to high borrowing costs and economic uncertainty.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for Media Services continues to show upward pressure, meaning the cost of reaching a consumer is rising. When combined with the high-interest-rate environment, the hurdle for a positive Return on Advertising Spend (ROAS) has become significantly higher. This economic pressure is forcing a Q4 pivot toward performance marketing (direct response) over brand building, with budgets highly concentrated on channels that can prove immediate sales.
Sentiment on social media forums reflects anxiety about the rapid adoption of AI in content generation, such as Performance Max for Google, Advantage+ on Meta, Koa/Kokai for TradeDesk, and Creative Studio for Amazon Advertising. Marketers are discussing the ethical and quality decline associated with AI-written copy and generic creative assets. The consensus is that, while AI tools increase volume and efficiency, they lower the creative barrier to entry, making once-impactful, high-engagement content far more valuable and scarce. Either way, agencies, publishers, and ad tech companies are still exploring cost-cutting in favor of AI compared with traditional human workforces.
Consumer sentiment is highly tuned to authenticity debates on platforms like TikTok and Instagram. Users frequently call out "forced" or over-produced influencer campaigns. This qualitative trend signals that Q4 success will rely less on large-scale celebrity endorsements and more on genuine, niche community engagement, demanding that ad agencies be hyper-aware of digital subcultures rather than relying on broad demographic targeting. AI tools, such as Veo3, may even replace influencers.
Individuals in ad operations, ad account management, sales, and similar roles should consider the gig economy, especially signing up for consulting companies. While the work is seasonable and often inconsistent, competitive hourly rates can compensate for lack of work or lower wages at a W-2 role/1099 NEC role.